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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.